Global Effect of Modifiable Risk Factors on Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.

BACKGROUND: Five modifiable risk factors are associated with cardiovascular disease and death from any cause. Studies using individual-level data to evaluate the regional and sex-specific prevalence of the risk factors and their effect on these outcomes are lacking. METHODS: We pooled and harmonized individual-level data from 112 cohort studies conducted in 34 countries and 8 geographic regions participating in the Global Cardiovascular Risk Consortium. We examined associations between the risk factors (body-mass index, systolic blood pressure, non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, and diabetes) and incident cardiovascular disease and death from any cause using Cox regression analyses, stratified according to geographic region, age, and sex. Population-attributable fractions were estimated for the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease and 10-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Among 1,518,028 participants (54.1% of whom were women) with a median age of 54.4 years, regional variations in the prevalence of the five modifiable risk factors were noted. Incident cardiovascular disease occurred in 80,596 participants during a median follow-up of 7.3 years (maximum, 47.3), and 177,369 participants died during a median follow-up of 8.7 years (maximum, 47.6). For all five risk factors combined, the aggregate global population-attributable fraction of the 10-year incidence of cardiovascular disease was 57.2% (95% confidence interval [CI], 52.4 to 62.1) among women and 52.6% (95% CI, 49.0 to 56.1) among men, and the corresponding values for 10-year all-cause mortality were 22.2% (95% CI, 16.8 to 27.5) and 19.1% (95% CI, 14.6 to 23.6). CONCLUSIONS: Harmonized individual-level data from a global cohort showed that 57.2% and 52.6% of cases of incident cardiovascular disease among women and men, respectively, and 22.2% and 19.1% of deaths from any cause among women and men, respectively, may be attributable to five modifiable risk factors. (Funded by the German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK); ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT05466825.).

Personalized diagnosis in suspected myocardial infarction.

BACKGROUND: In suspected myocardial infarction (MI), guidelines recommend using high-sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs-cTn)-based approaches. These require fixed assay-specific thresholds and timepoints, without directly integrating clinical information. Using machine-learning techniques including hs-cTn and clinical routine variables, we aimed to build a digital tool to directly estimate the individual probability of MI, allowing for numerous hs-cTn assays. METHODS: In 2,575 patients presenting to the emergency department with suspected MI, two ensembles of machine-learning models using single or serial concentrations of six different hs-cTn assays were derived to estimate the individual MI probability (ARTEMIS model). Discriminative performance of the models was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and logLoss. Model performance was validated in an external cohort with 1688 patients and tested for global generalizability in 13 international cohorts with 23,411 patients. RESULTS: Eleven routinely available variables including age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, electrocardiography, and hs-cTn were included in the ARTEMIS models. In the validation and generalization cohorts, excellent discriminative performance was confirmed, superior to hs-cTn only. For the serial hs-cTn measurement model, AUC ranged from 0.92 to 0.98. Good calibration was observed. Using a single hs-cTn measurement, the ARTEMIS model allowed direct rule-out of MI with very high and similar safety but up to tripled efficiency compared to the guideline-recommended strategy. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated diagnostic models to accurately estimate the individual probability of MI, which allow for variable hs-cTn use and flexible timing of resampling. Their digital application may provide rapid, safe and efficient personalized patient care. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: Data of following cohorts were used for this project: BACC ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02355457), stenoCardia ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT03227159), ADAPT-BSN ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au ; ACTRN12611001069943), IMPACT ( www.australianclinicaltrials.gov.au , ACTRN12611000206921), ADAPT-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12610000766011), EDACS-RCT ( www.anzctr.org.au ; ANZCTR12613000745741); DROP-ACS ( https://www.umin.ac.jp , UMIN000030668); High-STEACS ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT01852123), LUND ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT05484544), RAPID-CPU ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT03111862), ROMI ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT01994577), SAMIE ( https://anzctr.org.au ; ACTRN12621000053820), SEIGE and SAFETY ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT04772157), STOP-CP ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02984436), UTROPIA ( www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov ; NCT02060760).

Association of High-Sensitivity Troponin T and I Blood Concentrations With All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Outcome in Stable Patients-Results From the INTERCATH Cohort.

Background The association between high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) and outcome when adjusted for confounders including the angiographical severity of coronary artery disease (CAD) remains largely unknown. We therefore aimed to explore whether hsTnT and hsTnI blood levels increase with CAD severity and add independent predictive information for future major adverse cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in stable patients. Methods and Results Patients from the INTERCATH cohort with available coronary angiography and hsTnT and hsTnI concentrations were included. Troponin concentrations were quantified via hsTnT (Roche Elecsys) and hsTnI (Abbott ARCHITECT STAT). To investigate the association of hsTnT and hsTnI with outcome, a multivariable analysis adjusting for classical cardiovascular risk factors, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hs-CRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide), and Gensini score was carried out. Of 1829 patients, 27.9% were women, and the mean age was 68.6±10.9 years. Troponin blood concentrations were higher in patients with diagnosed CAD compared with those without. Using a linear regression model current smoking, arterial hypertension, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and CAD severity as graded by the Gensini and SYNTAX scores were associated with high-sensitivity troponin levels. Patients were followed for 4.4 years (25th and 75th percentiles: 4.3, 4.4). After multivariable adjustment, all-cause mortality was predicted by hsTnT (hazard ratio [HR], 1.7 [95% CI, 1.5-2.2], P<0.001) as well as hsTnI (HR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.2-1.8], P<0.001). However, only hsTnI (HR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.0-1.4], P=0.032) remained as an independent predictor of major adverse cardiovascular events after adjusting for most possible confounders, including CAD severity (hsTnT: HR, 1.0 [95% CI, 0.9-1.2], P=0.95). Conclusions After adjusting for classical cardiovascular risk factors, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hs-CRP, NT-proBNP, and CAD severity, hsTnT and hsTnI were independently associated with all-cause mortality, but only hsTnI was associated with major adverse cardiovascular events in stable patients undergoing coronary angiography. Registration URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/; Unique identifier: NCT04936438.

Association between outdoor artificial light at night and sleep duration among older adults in China: A cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Light after dusk disrupts the circadian rhythms and shifts the timing of sleep later; but it is unknown whether outdoor artificial light at night (ALAN) affects sleep quality. This study aimed to explore the association between residential outdoor ALAN and sleep duration in a nationally representative sample of Chinese older adults. METHODS: We examined the cross-sectional associations of outdoor ALAN with self-reported sleep duration in 13,474 older adults participating in the 2017-2018 wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Outdoor ALAN exposure was estimated at the residence level using satellite images. We applied generalized linear mixed models to investigate the association between ALAN exposure and sleep duration. We performed stratified analyses by age, sex, education, and household income levels. Moreover, we used multi-level logistic regression models to investigate the effects of ALAN on the short sleep duration (≤6 h) and the long sleep duration (>8 h), respectively, in reference to sleep for >6-8 h per day. RESULTS: We found a significant association between outdoor ALAN intensity and sleep duration. The highest quartile of ALAN was associated with 17.04 (95% CI: 9.42-24.78) fewer minutes of sleep as compared to the lowest quartile. The reductions in sleep duration per quartile change in ALAN were greater in the young old (≥65-85 years) and in those with higher levels of education, and those with higher household income, respectively. We did not detect a sex difference. In addition, those in the highest quartile of ALAN were more likely to report a 25% (95% CI: 10%-42%) increase in short sleep (<6 h), and a 21% (95% CI: 9%-31%) decrease in long sleep (>8 h). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing outdoor nighttime light intensity surrounding residences was associated with shorter sleep duration in older residents in China. This finding implies the importance of urban outdoor artificial light management as a potential means to lower the public health burden of sleep disorders.

The effect of China's Clean Air Act on cognitive function in older adults: a population-based, quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution might accelerate cognitive ageing; it is unclear whether large-scale interventions, such as China's Clean Air Act (CCAA), can mitigate cognitive deterioration. We aimed to evaluate the effect of CCAA on changes in cognitive function in older adults. METHODS: In this population-based, quasi-experimental study, we did a difference-in-differences analysis of the data collected during the 2014 and 2018 waves of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). The study design used a counterfactual analysis feature by dividing CLHLS participants into two groups. The intervention group included participants who lived in areas where the provincial government set a target of reducing particulate matter (PM) by at least 5% annually from 2014 onward, whereas the control group consisted of individuals who lived in areas without a PM reduction target. Global cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). We used fixed-effects models to examine the between-group differences in MMSE score changes before and after CCAA implementation. We associated longitudinal changes in MMSE scores with changes in concentrations of PM with a diameter of less than 2·5 µm (PM2·5) concentration and other regulated pollutants. We used alternative models and sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of the results from the main models. FINDINGS: 2812 individuals participated in the 2014 and 2018 surveys (mean age 81·0 years [SD 9·3] in 2014; 1408 [50·1%] female and 1404 [49·9%] male). 2251 (80·0%) were included in the intervention group and 561 (20·0%) in the control group. After controlling for potential confounders, the intervention group had a significantly smaller decline in MMSE scores from 2014 to 2018 compared with the control group: the mean between-group difference was 2·45 points (95% CI 1·32-3·57). Interquartile increases in PM2·5 were associated with a significant MMSE score decline of 0·83 points (95% CI 0·24-1·42); similarly, increases in SO2 were also associated with a significant MMSE score decline of 0·80 points (0·32-1·29). INTERPRETATION: Implementing stringent clean air policies might mitigate the risk of air pollutant-associated cognitive ageing in older people. FUNDING: National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, National Key R&D Program of China, China Postdoctoral Science Foundation funded project, the Duke/Duke-National University of Singapore Collaboration Pilot Project, the National Institute on Aging and Peking University-Baidu Fund, Energy Foundation, and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.

Target Populations and Treatment Cost for Bempedoic Acid and PCSK9 Inhibitors: A Simulation Study in a Contemporary CAD Cohort.

PURPOSE: The lowered LDL-C treatment goal of the 2019 European Society of Cardiology dyslipidemia guidelines results in a significant increase in the projected need for cost-intensive proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) inhibitors. Addition of bempedoic acid (BA) to established oral lipid-lowering medication (LLM) has the potential to enable affordable LDL-C goal attainment, particularly in patients with statin intolerance (SI). The goal of this study was to quantify the target populations for BA and PCSK9 inhibitors as well as the related treatment costs to achieve the LDL-C goal of <55 mg/dL and a ≥50% reduction assuming the addition of BA to LLM. METHODS: This study included 1922 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) from the contemporary observational cohort study INTERCATH. A Monte Carlo simulation incorporating an algorithm adding sequentially a statin, ezetimibe, optionally BA, and a PCSK9 inhibitor was applied to achieve the LDL-C treatment goal, with consideration of both partial and total SI. Two scenarios were simulated for both a moderate (2% full and 10% partial) and a high (12% full) rate of SI: (1) without BA; and (2) with BA. FINDINGS: Patients' mean age was 69.3 years, and the median baseline LDL-C level was 86.0 mg/dL. The need for a PCSK9 inhibitor would be 41.4% for a moderate rate of SI and 46.1% for a high rate of SI. Addition of BA would: (1) reduce the need for a PCSK9 inhibitor to 25.3% and 29.4%, thus lowering the annual overall treatment cost incurred through PCSK9 inhibitor ± BA per 1 million patients with CAD by 13.3% and 10.5%; (2) lower the cost per prevented event in the entire cohort (-5.0% and -6.3%), although at the price of fewer prevented events (-8.7% and -4.5%); and (3) reduce the cost per prevented event (-6.8% for both rates of SI) while preventing more events (7.6% and 6.9%) in the subpopulation of patients with full SI. IMPLICATIONS: Use of BA is projected to reduce the need for PCSK9 inhibitors as well as the treatment cost for add-on LLM. The subpopulation of patients with full SI might profit particularly.

Modifiable lifestyle risk factors and C-reactive protein in patients with coronary artery disease: Implications for an anti-inflammatory treatment target population.

BACKGROUND: Modifiable lifestyle risk factors (modRF) of coronary artery disease (CAD) are associated with increased inflammation represented by elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Lifestyle changes may influence the inflammatory burden in patients with CAD, relevantly modifying the target population for emerging anti-inflammatory compounds. AIMS: The aims of this study were to analyse the association of modRF and CRP levels in CAD patients, and to define a potential target population for anti-inflammatory treatment with and without the optimisation of modRF. METHODS: We included all patients with angiographically documented CAD from the observational cohort study INTERCATH. Patients with recent myocardial infarction, malignancy, infectious disease, and pre-existing immunosuppressive medication including a history of solid organ transplantation were excluded. Overweight (body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m2), smoking, lack of physical activity (PA; <1.5 h/week), and poor diet (≤12 points of an established Mediterranean diet score (MDS), range 0-28 points) were considered as modRF. CRP was measured by a high-sensitivity assay (hsCRP) at baseline. We performed multivariable linear regressions with log-transformed hsCRP as the dependent variable. Based on these associations, we calculated potential hsCRP levels for each patient, assuming optimisation of the individual modRF. RESULTS: Of 1014 patients, 737 (73%) were male, the mean age was 69 years, and 483 (48%) had an hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/l. ModRF were significantly overrepresented in patients with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/l compared to patients with an hsCRP < 2 mg/l (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2: 76% vs 61%; PA < 1.5 h/week: 69% vs 57%; MDS ≤ 12: 46% vs 37%; smoking: 61% vs 54%; p < 0.05 for all). hsCRP increased with the incremental number of modRF present (median hsCRP values for N = 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 modRF: 1.1, 1.0, 1.6, 2.4, 2.8 mg/l, p < 0.001). Multivariable linear regression adjusting for age, sex, intake of lipid-lowering medication, and diabetes mellitus revealed independent associations between log-transformed hsCRP and all modRF (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2: exp(ß) = 1.55, p < 0.001; PA < 1.5 h/week: exp(ß) = 1.33, p < 0.001; MDS ≤ 12: exp(ß) = 1.18, p = 0.018; smoking: exp(ß) = 1.18, p = 0.019). Individual recalculation of hsCRP levels assuming optimisation of modRF identified 183 out of 483 (38%) patients with hsCRP ≥ 2 mg/l who could achieve an hsCRP < 2 mg/l via lifestyle changes. CONCLUSION: modRF are strongly and independently associated with CRP levels in patients with CAD. A relevant portion of CAD patients with high inflammatory burden could achieve an hsCRP < 2 mg/l by lifestyle changes alone. This should be considered both in view of the cost and side-effects of pharmacological anti-inflammatory treatment and for the design of future clinical trials in this field.

The need for PCSK9 inhibitors and associated treatment costs according to the 2019 ESC dyslipidaemia guidelines vs. the risk-based allocation algorithm of the 2017 ESC consensus statement: a simulation study in a contemporary CAD cohort.

BACKGROUND: The recently updated European Society of Cardiology (ESC) dyslipidaemia guidelines recommend a lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) goal of <55 mg/dL for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), with a concomitant Class IA upgrade for proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 inhibitors (PCSK9i) for patients not reaching their LDL-C goal under conventional lipid-lowering therapy. AIMS: We aim to quantify the need for PCSK9i and the related costs to achieve the revised LDL-C goal in ASCVD patients compared to former ESC recommendations, in particular the risk-based 2017 ESC consensus update. METHODS AND RESULTS: We included patients with ASCVD from an observational cohort study ongoing since 2015. A Monte Carlo simulation incorporating a treatment algorithm adding sequentially a statin, ezetimibe, and a PCSK9i was applied with consideration of partial and total statin intolerance. The need for PCSK9i was calculated for three different ESC recommendations (2019 guidelines, 2016 guidelines, 2017 consensus update). Preventable events and treatment costs due to PCSK9i were calculated for a range of annual event rates from 2% to 8% and annual treatment costs of ca. 6050 €. We included 1780 patients (mean age 69.5 years). Median LDL-C at baseline was 85.0 mg/dL, with 61% of patients taking lipid-lowering medication. The need for PCSK9i was simulated to be 42.0% (ESC 2019), 31.9% (ESC 2016), and 5.0% (ESC 2017). The LDL-C goals were achieved in 97.9%, 99.1%, and 60.9% of patients, respectively. Annual treatment cost for PCSK9i per 1 000 000 ASCVD patients would be 2.54 billion € (ESC 2019) compared to 0.30 billion € (ESC 2017). Costs per prevented event due to PCSK9i initiation differed widely, e.g. 887 000 € for an event rate of 3% and a treatment goal of <55 mg/dL compared to 205 000 € for an event rate of 7% and risk-based use of PCSK9i. CONCLUSION: The revised LDL-C treatment goals increase the projected need for PCSK9i with a substantial increase in associated treatment cost. An allocation strategy based on residual LDL-C and clinical or angiographic risk factors leads to a more tailored target population for PCSK9i with a reasonable benefit/cost ratio.

Association of high-sensitivity troponin T and I with the severity of stable coronary artery disease in patients with chronic kidney disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Cardiac troponin blood levels are frequently elevated in patients with impaired renal function. Their predictive value for the severity of stable coronary artery disease (CAD) remains unclear in these cases. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the blood levels of high-sensitivity troponin T and I (hsTnT/I) and their association with the severity of stable CAD in patients with chronic kidney disease. METHODS: Overall, 2209 patients with suspected stable CAD undergoing invasive coronary angiography were included in an ongoing prospective cohort study. We identified 595 patients with impaired renal function defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) <60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Coronary morphology was assessed by the number of affected major coronary vessels (CAD classification), SYNTAX, and Gensini scores. hsTnT/I blood levels were measured by three latest-generation assays (Roche Diagnostics Elecsys, Abbott ARCHITECT STAT, and Singulex Clarity). Ordinal logistic regression for the severity of CAD adjusted by classical cardiovascular risk factors and eGFR were performed with each troponin assay as an independent variable. RESULTS: Mean age was 72.9 ± 9.8 years (33.6% female). Median eGFR was 47.5 ml/min/1.73 m2 (interquartile range [IQR] 34.9, 54.1). For the association of Roche-hsTnT, Abbott-hsTnI, and Singulex-hsTnI with the CAD classification, odds ratios per standard deviation (OR) were 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.51), 1.21 (CI 1.02-1.44), and 1.24 (CI 1.04-1.47), respectively. The associations for the investigated assays with SYNTAX and Gensini scores, respectively, were OR 1.40, CI 1.11-1.78 and OR 1.24, CI 1.01-1.51 (Roche-hsTnT), OR 1.42, CI 1.12-1.78 and OR 1.25, CI 1.02-1.52 (Abbott-hsTnI), OR 1.38, CI 1.09-1.74 and OR 1.25, CI 1.02-1.53 (Singulex-hsTnI). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with impaired renal function, blood levels of hsTnT/I were significantly associated with the severity of stable CAD. These findings may help clinicians guide further diagnostic assessment.